Morgan Rielly is still a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs, despite an off-season where it seemed all but certain he would be moved for a fresh start.
Rumblings around Rielly’s departure have been simmering for years, as the blue-liner’s game has tailed off in a major way over the past two seasons. Last season, specifically, Rielly was on the ice for an Eastern Conference-leading 92 goals against at even strength, while posting just 36 points at the other end.
Now, however, Rielly returns to a situation that looks vastly different than it did a year ago.
Darren Raddysh was brought in on a big-money deal and will now take the quarterbacking duties on the power play away from Rielly, along with the pressure of that role. Rielly’s $7.5-million cap hit also no longer looks like a massive anchor, as the NHL’s financial landscape exploded over the summer. Maybe there’s a world where Rielly, with less responsibility and less expectations, could carve out a different role and be an effective Maple Leaf.
Rielly is in for a bounce-back season
We’ve been down this road before with Rielly. Last year he came to camp in the best shape of his life with a refreshed outlook on the season, but the results weren’t there. To be fair to Rielly, though, they weren’t there for just about everyone on the Leafs roster and how much of that had to do with Craig Berube’s coaching style is a real question we’re going to get an answer to very soon.
The way John Chayka has built this roster and the way head coach Jim Hiller figures to deploy it seem to be with the intention to maximize the skillset of the players.
This means Rielly should be tasked with more opportunities to thrive offensively and Hiller has paired him with Raddysh to start. The duo figures to be used in offensive situations and sent over the boards with one of the top two lines to try and spend as much time in the offensive zone as they can. It looked good Wednesday against the Ottawa Senators in Toronto’s final pre-season game, where Rielly found the back of the net after a lengthy and dominant shift in the Senators' zone.
It was only one exhibition game, but the Leafs do appear to have found a recipe to get the most out of Rielly.
Overreaction? – No
You could make an argument that two things are true. Rielly’s game has slipped over the past couple of seasons but also Berube’s system may have hurt him more than any other player.
When Rielly is at his best, he’s using his legs and joining the rush with regularity to help drive the offence. However, under Berube the Leafs were dumping the puck in far more frequently than they did in the past, eliminating one of Rielly’s biggest strengths.
This has also led to Rielly having the puck on his stick less in the offensive zone and his shot volume dropping. Rielly managed just 141 shots last season and 126 the year before that, his two lowest totals over a full 82-game campaign since he was a rookie. Even though Raddysh was brought in to help the offence from the backend, Rielly is still going to be counted on to find the scoresheet regularly.
Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe won’t provide much offensively and Oliver Ekman-Larsson is 35, so at some point he’s going to slow down, too. Meanwhile, it seems like Emil Andrae and Nick Blankenburg have been passed by Troy Stecher on the depth chart for the time being. After Raddysh, it’s hard to see where the offence is going to come from on the blue line other than Rielly.
Let’s also not discount what Raddysh can do for Rielly. Whether or not you agree with the pairing, it’s certainly an upgrade from Brandon Carlo or Philippe Myers, who Rielly played with regularly over the past two seasons. Raddysh is a high-IQ player and he should be able to understand how to compensate for Rielly’s deficiencies in certain areas. But it’s also on Rielly to adjust his game, too. He simply doesn’t have the footspeed anymore to play like he used to. He can still move, but he can’t get to his top level as frequently as he once did.
For instance, last season Rielly exceeded 22 m.p.h. in skating speed just twice, per NHL EDGE, but when you compare that to his numbers from 2021-22, he did it eight times. Rielly needs to accept he can’t take the same risks as he once did and his decision-making needs to change. Perhaps this will be an easier realization for him to get to if he isn’t being asked to carry as much responsibility on his shoulders.
It’s fair to be skeptical where Rielly is concerned, though none of the issues that have been contributing to his drop in play recently are irreversible.
Missing training camp is going to hurt Hellebuyck this season
No one should be too surprised that Connor Hellebuyck has been away from the Winnipeg Jets as he waits for his trade demand to be met. Hellebuyck clearly wants out and it would be challenging for both him and his teammates to walk into a situation that has reached an unfixable state. With that said, not being at training camp is less than ideal for anyone, but especially a goaltender.
Even though training camp just feels like players are going through the motions sometimes, it does help them get back up to speed for when the real games start and it’s hard to catch up if you miss significant time.
Overreaction? - No
We saw what happened to Jeremy Swayman just two seasons ago when he missed camp waiting for his contract issue to get resolved and the results weren’t good.
Swayman ended up with the worst statistical season of his career, sporting an .892 save percentage and a goals-against average over three. The Boston Bruins goaltender was also only 25 at the time, where Hellebuyck is 33 and has played a ton of hockey over the past five seasons.
It's easy to see Hellebuyck struggling to catch up to a moving train if he ends up missing all of camp and possibly the first few weeks of the regular season.
The absence likely isn’t helping Hellebuyck’s trade value, either. He had a down season a year ago and underwent knee surgery in November, so seeing him flourishing on the ice would probably be more enticing for an acquiring team.
Stenberg will finish with more points than McKenna this season
As far as first impressions go, it’s hard to make a better one than Ivar Stenberg has. The San Jose Sharks forward scored a hat trick Thursday night and added an assist, as the second-overall pick made a huge statement.
It’s only natural that Stenberg will be compared to Gavin McKenna after they went first and second in this year's draft, and while McKenna has looked dazzling at times, he hasn’t found the scoresheet as often as Stenberg.
Some even felt heading in to the draft that Stenberg was more pro ready than McKenna and deserved consideration to be the top pick. It’s only the pre-season, but you can see a world where Stenberg finishes with more points than McKenna.
Overreaction? – Yes
McKenna still out-produces Stenberg over a full 84-game season, for a few reasons.
First, that Sharks 10-0 victory where Stenberg lit it up came against an Anaheim Ducks team playing with only two or three players that figure to see NHL action this season.
Second, Stenberg may be a better all-around player than McKenna at this point, but he’s not as gifted offensively. McKenna’s high-end skill should translate better in Year 1 to produce points.
Finally, McKenna has a better chance to play with elite offensive talent all season, whereas it's more likely that Stenberg plays apart from Macklin Celebrini regularly to try and give the Sharks more balance.
The odds of the Leafs bumping McKenna out of the top six are low, meaning he should be playing with some combination of William Nylander, John Tavares or Auston Matthews all year long.
Mckenna and Stenberg will likely be compared for most of their careers, but right now it's safer to say McKenna will win the points battle in their rookie campaigns.
Fantilli benefitted the most from Carlsson’s offer sheet
Players across the NHL owe Philadelphia Flyers general manager Daniel Briere a debt of gratitude.
After his offer sheet to Ducks forward Leo Carlsson, a number of players cashed in this summer in a far greater way than they would have been able to in the old market.
Celebrini, Cutter Gauthier, Cale Makar and Connor Bedard are just a few that took advantage of the league’s new financial landscape, but maybe nobody benefitted more than Adam Fantilli.
The Columbus Blue Jackets agreed to terms with Fantilli on Thursday to the tune of $13.75 million per year. Players inked deals worth more than Fantilli’s this summer, though you could argue he got the biggest raise in relation to what his value would’ve been before the Carlsson offer sheet.
Overreaction? - No
If we look at some of the other aforementioned names that signed big deals this summer, they definitely got extra cash because of the offer sheet, but nowhere near as much as Fantilli.
Makar is one of the best five players in the world, so even without Carlsson’s new deal he still could have asked for more than someone like Kirill Kaprizov, which would’ve taken him north of $17 million already.
Celebrini is coming off a 115-point season and likely could’ve commanded at least $15 million, but instead he got $18.8 million. Maybe Bedard is at $12 million or $13 million before the offer sheet instead of the $15 million he received? Meanwhile, Gauthier just posted a 41-goal, 69-point season and he still got less than Fantilli.
Fantilli, though, is only coming off a 59-point campaign, which is his best as a pro. He’s also only exceeded 30 goals once in his career, too. It’s hard to imagine Fantilli getting more than $7 million or maybe $8 million per year in the old financial world. Instead, his salary likely almost doubled thanks to Carlsson.
It took a while for the deal with the Blue Jackets to come together, but patience really paid off for Fantilli.
